The political scientist Ghanem Al-Abd revealed the dynamics of these factions, their ideological affiliations with Iran, and their direct impact on the state’s stability and security institutions. This analysis delves into the nature of threats, the position of the Iraqi government between internal and external pressures, and the increasing American response, focusing on potential risks from the use of Iranian militias and strategic ground movements.
Baghdad between the grip of militias and American response
Al-Abd stated that the ideological loyalty of militias affiliated with Iran constitutes a significant challenge to the Iraqi state. He noted that “any decision issued by Iran is considered a religious fatwa requiring execution,” making these groups incapable of rejecting Iranian directives. This connection, according to the researcher, has evolved from a private matter into a distinct governmental and security crisis. He cited a statement from the Ministry of Defense regarding the targeting of two bases in Baghdad and the siege of an Anti-Terrorism Agency headquarters belonging to the Popular Mobilization Forces in the Tajiyat area, revealing unprecedented tension between official agencies and these factions.
Al-Abd monitored a dangerous escalation in the pace of attacks over the past ten days, describing them as targeting “inside and outside Iraq,” with no exception for Baghdad or the Kurdistan Region, extending to “oil fields, embassies, consulates, and even private hotels.” This escalation, according to Al-Abd, revealed the Iraqi government’s failure to curb these factions, providing a justification for the United States to conduct airstrikes on Popular Mobilization Forces headquarters in multiple governorates, including Nineveh, Mosul, Salah al-Din, Diyala, and Kirkuk.
The citizen is a hostage, and the conflict moves to cities
Al-Abd did not overlook the humanitarian dimension of this crisis, pointing to the anxiety prevailing in Iraqi streets, particularly in areas that previously suffered from terrorism, such as Mosul. He stated: “Citizens are currently worried about their security. A province like Nineveh suffered what it did from terrorism, and today these militias are involving it in this conflict, using its land as a platform to launch rockets at Erbil airport and the American consulate.” This situation, according to Al-Abd, reflects a general feeling of “weak governmental performance and the absence of a desire to hold these militias accountable,” making them “the ones controlling the security situation” and leading to the expectation of a “confrontation between official government agencies and these militias at any moment.”
Iran seeks comprehensive chaos… and Iraq is a battlefield for settling accounts
Al-Abd warned during his statement that if the situation continues as is, Iraq will be completely transformed into a “battlefield,” which is the goal these militias seek to “alleviate pressure on Iran.” He added that the significant American military superiority pushes Iran to activate alternative options, saying: “Activating dormant cells and using the cards of extremist Sunni and Shia armed groups could be Iran’s most prominent options in the coming stage,” not only in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen, but potentially in other countries.
Al-Abd revealed a real fear in the Iraqi street regarding the exploitation of chaos to release extremist organizations, stating: “With militias continuing to use rockets and drones, there is a fear of targeting prisons where al-Qaeda and ISIS fighters are located.” He added to the severity of this scenario by mentioning the transfer of “7,000 first-tier ISIS leaders to Iraqi prisons, who are of various nationalities.”
Al-Abd concluded that Iran is seeking “great chaos to reduce pressure on itself before the United States,” and that using the “card of extremist Sunni and Shia organizations for Iran’s benefit could be one of its options in the coming days,” which will inevitably reflect on security and stability in the entire region, not just Iraq.
