Facing pressure to open its borders to Iranian Kurds, the Iraqi Kurdish administration has received a stern warning from Tehran. The Iranian military stated that if Kurdish groups in Iraq are allowed to plan attacks from their territory, the region will face widespread military retaliation. This marks the first direct threat issued by Iran against Iraqi Kurds via the shared border, raising concerns about the potential expansion of the conflict.
A senior official in the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) emphasized that the Kurdish population should not act as the frontline in this dispute. While the KRG maintains communication with all parties, the tone of the Iranian government has turned hostile following a Friday statement regarding the presence of armed groups near the border. Ali Akbar Ahmadian of the Iranian Defense Council warned that if these groups continue to plan operations or allow the entry of Israeli elements, all facilities in Iraqi Kurdistan will be targeted.
Regarding military capabilities, a Kurdish official noted that Iran does not need advanced hypersonic missiles to inflict damage; they stated that 200 drone aircraft could cause significant harm, and the region lacks the air defense systems to intercept them.
On the geopolitical front, there are conflicting signals regarding the US stance on Iran. While Donald Trump has called for regime change, the specific nature of this demand remains unclear. Kurdish officials express a desire to maintain neutrality due to this ambiguity, estimating that the US will not deploy ground troops and that a complete regime change is unlikely without them. They also noted that Israel appears more impulsive in this file, both militarily and in its support for Kurdish groups, though they see no evidence of US efforts to arm or incite these groups. While Israel seeks the complete elimination of the Iranian regime, the US is seen as potentially accepting a “softened” version of it.
Separately, a co-leader of the Iranian Kurdish group PJAK stated that their forces inside Iran will not move without American support, adding that they are in contact with US officials but not Israeli intelligence. Conversely, a source from the Iraqi Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) indicated that Peshmerga forces have so far succeeded in preventing Iranian Kurdish militias from launching attacks from Iraqi soil. Kurdish leaders have decided to remain neutral in the current war, partly due to fears that the US might abandon them in the future.
